Star Metro - Paris Agreement at Ten: Climate Talks Face Impasse Amid Accelerating Warming

Ten years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, the global framework designed to limit climate change is confronting a profound diplomatic impasse. As the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (Cop31) convenes in Belém, Brazil, the treaty’s central objective—keeping global heating below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels—has been effectively missed, with temperatures already exceeding this threshold for two consecutive years.

The current summit has highlighted deepening fault lines within the international climate community. In a significant departure from previous negotiations, Brazilian hosts removed concrete national emission reduction plans from the agenda, insisting that such commitments remain the exclusive domain of sovereign governments rather than subjects of multilateral negotiation. This decision sparked immediate concern among diplomats, with one seasoned negotiator from the Global South warning that the summit would be "very short" because there was "nothing to negotiate." Another developing country diplomat noted that the absence of the United States from the Paris process had eliminated the appetite for engagement among other nations.

The outcome was a deal that satisfied few, reflecting a broader unease about the utility of the Cop process itself. For many observers outside the conference halls, the question remains: what is the point of these negotiations when the core goal has been missed?

Since the Paris Agreement entered into force in 2015, governments have pledged to limit global heating to 1.5C. However, the UN recently revealed that its most optimistic estimate now projects warming of approximately 1.7C to 1.8C. This trajectory suggests that the treaty has failed on its face, leading critics to question whether the consensus-based Cop process is fit for purpose.

The criticism of the Paris framework is extensive. The negotiation process is described as labyrinthine and bureaucratic, taking more than five years merely to finalize the "rulebook" required to implement the treaty. Furthermore, the requirement that all resolutions pass by consensus has allowed obstructive actors to block progress. Allies of former US President Donald Trump, including representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, and other petrostates, have frequently vetoed measures.

It took more than three decades of negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in 1992, for fossil fuels to be directly addressed. This occurred at Cop28 in Dubai in 2023, where countries agreed for the first time to "transition away from fossil fuels" but failed to establish a timeline or supporting policies.

The withdrawal of the United States, the world’s largest economy and responsible for approximately one-eighth of current carbon dioxide emissions, under President Trump has further weakened the treaty’s leverage. Even among developed nations that support the process, concrete plans are lacking. Australia, co-host of Cop31, has set no end date for fossil fuel exports, while fellow co-host Turkey plans to increase its carbon output. The UK is opening a new gasfield and considering new oil exploration, Germany has scrapped renewable heating laws and electric vehicle sales targets, and most wealthy nations are reducing their contributions to climate finance for developing countries.

The pace of the Paris timetable, which may have seemed adequate in 2015 when temperatures were rising at 0.2C per decade, is now dangerously slow. Today, the rate of rise is 0.4C per decade and accelerating.

Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate adviser now at American University, described the structures of the Cops and Paris as "labyrinthine, bureaucratic, and ultimately dispiriting." He suggested it may be time to streamline these processes to focus more deliberately on national emissions reduction goals.

Public faith in the agreement is eroding. Juan Carlos Monterrey, former climate envoy for Panama and now chief executive of Vanglabs consultancy, stated that many commitments made under Paris "turned out to be a bunch of hot air" and that "under that measure, we have failed."

Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, called the situation a "global failure." He cited accelerating global warming, the inevitable breach of the 1.5C limit within three to five years, approaching tipping points, and declining Earth resilience as evidence that allowing a path toward catastrophic 2.6C to 3C warming within the Paris framework is unacceptable.

Despite these criticisms, experts refuse to concede that the agreement is obsolete. Rockström emphasized that "Paris is all we have" and that the global climate crisis can only be solved if all countries simultaneously move away from planet-damaging heat injection. Monterrey agreed, describing Paris as a "moral compass" that has set the direction for progress, even if the speed of travel is insufficient.

The current summit presents a complex political landscape. Cop31 features a split presidency and host nation: it is held in Turkey but presided over by Australia. This arrangement is viewed as a messy compromise between two countries whose primary commonality is an admiration for coal. However, there are signs of shifting momentum. Brazil’s re-election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has overseen the biggest reductions in deforestation in decades. In the United States, midterms delivered a setback for right-wing politics, while in Serbia and Hungary, democratic forces prevailed over authoritarianism.

Action is also advancing outside the formal Cop framework. Following the lack of a strong statement on phasing out fossil fuels at last year’s Cop30, nearly 60 countries held an alternative meeting in Colombia in April to draw up national roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels. France, Germany, and the Netherlands have already produced such plans.

Bledsoe advocates using this model for side agreements on "super pollutants" such as methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), ground-level ozone, nitrous oxide, and black carbon. He noted that cutting methane by 40% could hold down temperatures by about 0.3C in the next decade, with deeper cuts potentially yielding a 0.5C decrease by 2100.

"Paris was never intended to do all the hard work itself," Bledsoe said. "We need to use the G7, the G20 and other forums too, and we need to elevate the climate to the level of national security concern, and see it as an economic threat."

The moral compass of Paris has also driven tangible success in the real world. Claudio Angelo of the Observatório do Clima thinktank pointed to the proliferation of solar panels and electric vehicles as evidence of the treaty’s transformative impact. "Will Paris prevent overshoot of 1.5C? No way. Will it prevent 2C of warming? Unlikely. But the transformation it has triggered can’t be exaggerated," he said.

China, the world’s largest emitter, is taking multilateral climate efforts more seriously due to economic stakes. Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted that if the world abandons decarbonization, China will lose its market for solar panels and electric vehicles. Similarly, developing-country consumers are adopting clean technology without waiting for assistance. In Pakistan, rooftop solar now accounts for about a quarter of electricity use due to grid issues. In Vietnam, Chinese-made electric vehicles make up more than 40% of car sales.

The hosts of Cop31 have proposed one of the most significant ideas in recent years: shifting fuel sources for cars and heating to electricity. Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University, estimates that switching to electric for everything could halve the world’s total final energy use due to superior efficiency, even if the electricity is fossil-based.

Adair Turner, former chair of the UK’s climate change committee, stated that electrification is "the single most important thing you have to do" to reach net zero emissions. He suggested that agreeing on a target of deriving 35% of final energy use from electricity by 2035, up from 23% today, would be a major boost to decarbonization efforts.

The Cop process also provides a unique forum for holding non-democratic states accountable. Ilana Seid, ambassador of Palau and chair of the Pacific Small Island Developing States, emphasized that Cops allow countries to share experiences and seek support. "That’s very valuable," she said. "We small islands and vulnerable nations are on the frontline. For us, this is existential. We are all very committed to Paris."

Sue Biniaz, a former US climate negotiator, noted that consensus decisions send powerful signals to investors and financiers. "Any time you have a consensus decision, it sends a signal to investors, to people who finance things, and to countries," she said. "I think that’s true these days with the geopolitics of the world – if something can be agreed by the whole world, it’s impactful."

While Cop31 may bring progress on electrification and climate finance, it is clear that whatever the summit produces will not be enough. The conference lasts only a fortnight, while tackling the climate crisis requires wholesale transformation of economies and societies year-round.

The human cost of inaction is severe. Sujeeta Mathema, executive director of ActionAid Nepal, described the trauma following a catastrophic glacier collapse in her country. "It feels like living with grief, fear and uncertainty about the future," she said. "The devastation is not just physical; it is deeply emotional and psychological." She noted that people feel the injustice of a crisis created by the rich while hurting the most vulnerable.

Yet Mathema added that Cop remains a place of hope. "Cop is an important space for us to raise our voice, clearly putting our agenda," she said. "Cop can help prevent such disasters if the commitments come off paper and are put into action."

As the summit continues, the tension between the treaty’s failure to meet its immediate temperature goals and its role as a guiding moral framework defines the current state of global climate diplomacy.

P.Lefebvre--SMC